2008年11月26日 星期三

If 24 was real.

WOW, the new 24 (24: Redemption) is really good!

And, the introduction of Madam President Taylor really got me thinking if it wasn't for Obama, we could have our first female president in Hilary Clinton. But at any rate, 24's crew already flashed its crystal ball in predicting a first black president with David Palmer.

So it has got me thinking, maybe the characters in 24 were inspired by real life politians. If so, here are the comparisons:

President Palmer











- David/Clinton wasn't perfect, but he will be loved by most.

President Wayne Palmer











- Wayne/Gore has great passion, but they always have to live in their big brothers' shadow.

Madam President Taylor











- Hey, they even wear the same suit, almost.


President Logan










- If you actually like Logan, you will love Bush.

Jack Bauer










- Maybe if the new 24 was aired earlier, McCain could have had a better chance winning the election.


And last but never the least...Kim Bauer










- Both John and Bauer did so much for them, but they never gave anything back.




Sorry, gotta end one with a Sarah Palin.

U-Bankers




So the Chinese government is revising laws to legalize underground banks. At least, legalize the lending business (foreign exchange is a different story, the government won’t let that one go for the time being). So what is the problem with their existing banking system? What can some of these underground banks do that the big banks can’t?

For one thing, its credit rating is tracking the wrong dude. The current system only tracks credit history of companies. Under this system, any average Joe can work the magic: creat a few companies and shuffle money around them – the goal is to make some of them credit-worthy at the expense of the other ones. Once you have built up a basket of beautiful apples, you have got your loancow (like cashcow of loans), and you may throw out (default) the bad lemons.

But the state banks are not stupid; they know this trick by heart too. Consequently, they don’t lend to your company unless they know you, or they know somebody who knows you. So hence a vague individual credit rating system. However, the network of who-knows-who does not help most of the smaller name, SMEs entrepreneurs, especially in the rural area where developments have lagged behind.

In turn, these SMEs entrepreneurs look to the savior - the informal underground banks (Check Here).

Some of these underground banks are actually more visible than you think. These U-Bankers often know the SMEs entrepreneurs well, both run business in the same industry and they likely have extended loans to the entrepreneurs in one form or another (think of a supplier-and-buyer relationship). Most importantly, U-Bankers have far better information on prospect customer’s ability to make payments.

As a case study, 奧康集團, a shoe maker from Wenzhou has set up a 1.5 billion loan company with state bank’s help and finance - 永嘉瑞豐 - (Check Here), and all of the 1.5 billion loans was ditched out three month after the company was set up.

I do not have a list of 瑞豐‘s customers. But I would bet those who borrowed from the pool of 1.5 billion were the shoe maker’s suppliers, business affiliates and the likes.

What is amazing is that I think a semi loan-bank like 瑞豐 will actually make a formidable profit. It charges a monthly interest rate of 10.2% to 23.1%, this is 122% annually! ((Check Here)) And, this is legal.

But, what if these loans are extremely risky therefore a loan shark-like interest rate is justified.

Sure, that could be the case, and I am no risk management expert. But, if my assumption was true, and that 瑞豐 only makes loans to those who it knows well and has credit information of, then the default risk could be mitigated somewhat. At the end of the day, 瑞豐 is operating with an on-paper yield of 122% and up, so they should have some appetite for risk.

So there you go, who would think some shoe maker out of a rural town in China has suddenly set foot in the high risk, high return venture capital funding business. Thanks to China’s out-dated banking system.

2008年11月12日 星期三

China is more Capital-centric...

So a few beloved friends of mine travelled to Hong Kong, as we met up for drinks, a ‘over-the-beer’ conversation centered on the form of “capitalism”.

One claimed: “On a scale of 1 to 100, China now resembles more capitalism than that of the U.S.”.

And, another friend concurred.

I couldn’t disagree more with what was said! But I didn’t know what arguments I could present to counter the claim. So it prompted me to look up Wikipedia for the definition of “Capitalism”.

“Capitalism is the economic system in which the means of production are controlled by the private sector rather than by government.”

Well, let’s see, on a relative basis, which government (China or U.S.) has more control over its nation’s production (think state-owned banks, oil/coal production companies, telecommunication companies and airline companies, etc.)?

While we have seen real estate development been privatized, which country, today, has more rigid control on its property rights and commodity prices (think no individual can own land in China but lease them, and the property price cooling measures Beijing has administered in the past twelve months)?

While the answer is obvious, I have to appreciate the topic of discussion. With the way China has transformed its centrally planned economy to a mixed one, how soon can we expect China to overtake the U.S. as the biggest economy, and when that happens, would it be as capital-based as the U.S.?

2008年11月4日 星期二

Here comes the Taskforce on economic challenges...

So the Taskforce appointed by Donald Tsang to tackle and advise on economical challenges Hong Kong faces has delivered their 'insight' from their first meeting:

From SCMP, Nov 4th 2008:

"Being a small and open economy, the risk of Hong Kong going into a recession...It is expected that four sectors relating to financial services; trade and logistics; tourism and consumption-related services; and real estate and construction will be hit rather harder in the next year or so."

Yeah, thanks dude, why don't you just said every sector other than the IT industry will struggle? Oh, wait, there is not much IT industry in Hong Kong, so you can just say 'every industry will struggle'.

Thank you, and please send the cheque my way.