2008年12月10日 星期三

What is different this time.

So there has been no short of news on the worsening financial crisis, and where and when it will bottom out. Many looked back as far as the great depression for comparison, and I am freaking out to think of the possibility.

One argument attributes to that the consumer confidents are hurt, so they will stop spending, to a point that will halt the entire economy.

But one thing people don’t seem to understand - the income generating force today is very much different than the ones in the great depression times.

When the great depression hit – around 1930, people were living in between two wars, WW1 ends around 1918 and WW2 starts around 1939. So households have very fresh memories of the difficult war time, and many would “save all” for preparation of another war. The difficulties of living people could endure back then is beyond our thoughts.

The working force is much different today. Most of us in our twenties to fourties have hardly gone through tough times. Especially if one grew up in the west to one of the developed countries. I can easily count a few high school friends who got their first car at age of 18 or earlier, myself included. We are to a bigger extend - spoiled!

Amid the current economy, those running a business will see sales drop; those who work will have a lesser sense of job security. But we will still spend a great level of money to be entertained. The new Keanue Reeves (the day earth stood still) movie might not be very good, but we will go watch it anyways...

There is no debate we are in a very bad crisis, but I think it is no where close to the great depression.

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